LinkedIn"s Online Job Postings May Be Worst Since 2009

LinkedIn: o que é e como usar?

Updated June 7, 2016 11:26 a.m. ET

LinkedIn (LNKD: NYSE) By MKM Partners ($135.07, June 6, 2016)

We believe that LinkedIn is a unique network, the de facto in Recruiting with promising opportunities in Sales and Learning. We are concerned that the jobs tailwind over the past six-years is becoming a headwind and that any further softness in Hiring revenue would incorrectly be perceived as a TAM (total addressable market) issue vs. a macro issue. We have made modest changes to our estimates, embedding 2% higher revenue based on upside in Q1 and guidance for the year.

Online jobs data getting incrementally worse

We track online jobs postings from the Conference Board as a barometer of hiring activity. This data has shown fair directional correlation with growth in U.S. Hiring revenue for LinkedIn (ticker: LNKD LNKD -1.4738393515106853% LinkedIn Corp. Cl A U.S.: NYSE USD133.7 -2 -1.4738393515106853% /Date(1465333280722-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 982745 AFTER HOURS USD133.7 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1473 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 18121972448.3796 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 342647 More quote details and news ).

After 73 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, online jobs postings have been in decline since February. May was by far the worst month since January 2009, down 285k from April and down 552k from a year ago.

Online job postings are not a direct revenue driver for LinkedIn. We do however believe it is a reflection of overall hiring activity and should be considered a check on demand vibrancy. Temp employees have been an issue for months and payrolls for May were surprisingly weak.

We are concerned that further deterioration could lead to a 2H revenue shortfall

Consensus forecasts reflect 27% growth in Talent Solutions revenue for the year. Excluding Lynda.com, expectation for Hiring revenue growth is likely around 21%. Deceleration from 33% last year and 46% the year prior is already stoking Bear concerns that the addressable market for hiring is nowhere near managements $12Bn visible pipeline.

We believe that any incremental softness in Hiring, even if macro related, would be interpreted as late-stage penetration of a more narrow addressable market.

Growing focus on GAAP vs. non-GAAP results would also be negative for LinkedIn

A growing focus for several months, this has likely weighed on LinkedIn shares to some degree. LinkedIn is among the most aggressive in the sector with stock based compensation expense.

SBC in 2015 of $510mn was 17% of non-GAAP gross profit for the company. EPS of $2.84 on a non-GAAP basis was a loss of ($1.23) on a GAAP basis.

We prefer non-GAAP and factor dilution for stock awards into our share count in our long-term earnings analysis. While we are comfortable with the dilutive impact on EPS power, LinkedIn does not screen well in the GAAP vs. non-GAAP debate.

Conclusion: While we like LinkedIns long-term prospects and believe that sentiment on the companys opportunity is overly negative, we remain at Neutral on the stock. We would wait for clarity on hiring revenue exposure to macro/cyclical factors, or a break-out in either Learning or Sales before potentially recommending the stock. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $130 per share.

-- Rob Sanderson, Managing Director

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Source: http://www.barrons.com/articles/linkedins-online-job-postings-may-be-worst-since-2009-1465298237