Horrifying details of the Bataclan Theatre massacre revealed
LAST March, in Brussels, it was airline passengers, commuters, and the very institutions of the European Union, writes Cormac OKeeffe
Days before that, in Istanbul, it was high-street shoppers.
Last November, in Paris, it was people out socialising in pubs, restaurants, and music venues, and a football stadium.
And now, in Nice, its families, some of them tourists, others locals, out catching the fireworks to mark Bastille Day.
They are the latest targets of an indiscriminate war on the citizens of Europe, of all faiths, nationalities, and ages.
Early reports yesterday indicated that up to 10 children, possibly more, were among the estimated 84 dead in Nice.
Like the Brussels attack, the atrocity was also an assault on modern democratic Europe and the traditional French values of liberty, equality, and fraternity.
Day-to-day life in Europe is under sustained attack, whether it is socialising, travelling, holidaying, or celebrating public events.
The next target is impossible to predict. As are the weapons of choice, shifting from bombs, to bullets, to knives... to a truck.
Its a threat that Ireland, and certainly Irish people, are not immune from.
There were reports throughout yesterday that at least one Irish person was fighting for his life in Nice, in addition to the numerous cases of Irish people lucky to escape unharmed.
Thousands of Irish people, many families with children, are either currently holidaying, or are about to holiday, in the south of France.
They will be understandably nervous, even if the statistical odds of being caught up in a terror attack are very low.
But thats the point to inflict maximum psychological terror on the wider society and undermine its very being.
Back in April, there were intelligence reports that Islamic State was planning attacks on beaches and other holiday resorts of southern Europe, such as Spain, France, and Italy.
The threat from IS-inspired terrorism became a reality for Ireland a year ago when three Irish people were murdered on the beaches of Sousse in Tunisia.
Athlone couple Laurence and Martina Hayes and Meath woman Lorna Carty were killed in the indiscriminate attack on June 26, 2015, along with 35 others, mostly European tourists.
Last November, Irish couple Katie Healy and David Nolan narrowly escaped with their lives from the Bataclan massacre in Paris, in which 130 people were murdered.
Last March, a week before the Brussels attack, five Irish citizens, three of them children, escaped death as a suicide bomber blew himself up on a landmark Istanbul shopping street.
Only this month, a man whom garda described as ISs main recruiter in Ireland, was deported. The threat within Ireland is considered low, but the size, and technical expertise, of our international counter-terrorism unit has been questioned, though there are efforts to improve that.
We are not immune, Tnaiste Frances Fitzgerald said yesterday. We cannot be complacent because one doesnt know where a lone wolf or terrorist organisation will strike.
A French expert on IS told the Irish Examiner last May that the terrorist group sees the whole of Europe, including Ireland, as a vast battleground.
Jean-Pierre Filiu, professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Sciences Po in Paris, said for IS there is no border in Europe.
For them the whole of Europe, no matter the cultural, national, or historical differences, is the home of the Jews and the Crusaders in their propaganda, he said.
The author of From Deep State to Islamic State said the intention of IS in attacking Europe was to trigger violence against European Muslims and fuel recruitment and their narrative of them against us.
But the Nice atrocity poses again the question: How do police and security services prevent such attacks?
Indeed is it possible, even with, as there was in Nice and throughout France, a heavy presence of armed police?
Analysts believe Europe is facing threats from two different types of attackers: Organised cells, often involving people who have travelled and fought in Syria; and lone wolves people who are inspired and radicalised online, but who act alone.
Analysts also paint a worrying picture as to the typical profile of a jihadist or rather the lack of one.
It is not clear if the man named as the Nice attacker Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, 31, who had Tunisian nationality and was living in Nice had links with IS. Initial reports indicate the married father-of-three was known to police for serious criminal activity including assault, domestic violence, and robbery, but had no history in relation to terrorism or extremism. More than that like Omar Mateen in Orlando he could have been working alone.
Such factors make it very difficult for any state, no matter how sophisticated and well-resourced its security agencies are, to monitor such people.
Intelligence experts told the Financial Times earlier this week that there was no consensus about what made a terrorist, and that some had paradoxical traits.
Some were natives, others immigrants; some were cradle Muslims, others were converts; some were criminals, others were professionals; some were religious, others were not.
Professor Martha Crenshaw, professor at Stanford University and expert on terrorism, said: The problem is lots of people might fit a profile but not act, while those who do act dont fit a pattern.
She said that when it came to motivation the possibilities are endless, from personal grievance to mental illness or social frustration.
A study by British terror police of those at risk of terrorist sympathies found that they may have mental health or psychological problems. But it said other factors may also explain radicalisation, including western foreign policy, alienation, and socioeconomic deprivation.
Leicestershire chief constable Simon Cole, who runs the Prevent Programme, told The Guardian the factors were highly individual and include some sort of glamour, some sort of position in society and a sense of political grievance.
The Tnaiste yesterday asked who could have expected a huge truck would be used to drive through crowds on the Nice promenade. And who could?
Before Bataclan who could have predicted such an event? Before the London bombings in July 2005, who could have predicted that?
And thats whats terrifying Europes security and police services how to identify and monitor potential attackers and how to predict the mutation in both the location and the form of the next attack.
Irish Examiner Ltd. All rights reserved
Source: http://www.irishexaminer.com/analysis/a-constantly-mutating-threat-to-society-410664.html
