WWE Battleground 2016! [WWE 2K16 Simulation] #WWEBattleground
CLEVELAND, Ohio WWE hasn"t confirmed yet when Finn Balor will make his debut on Raw. But the promotion probably won"t procrastinate too long before introducing the NXT superstar to its main roster.
Stephanie McMahon and Raw general manager Mick Foley chose Balor early during the WWE Draft. Balor"s debut could (and probably should) come as early as tonight.
The main focus of tonight"s Raw will be the aftermath of Battleground. With Dean Ambrose winning the triple-threat match and taking the WWE Championship to SmackDown Live, Raw is without a champion. But don"t expect that to last long.
It"s likely Roman Reigns and Seth Rollins (and possibly others) will take center stage in a feud to see who will be the champion for Raw. Fans are probably salivating at the possibility of Finn Balor entering the title picture. While that might be the ideal move, it may not be the likely one.
Vince McMahon and Triple H tend to slow play NXT superstars" arrivals by pairing them with an established superstar in non-title bouts. Think Kevin Owens feuding with John Cena or AJ Styles taking on Chris Jericho.
Speaking of Chris Jericho, early advertisements have been previewing a potential face-off between Y2J and Balor. That could just be for live shows (we hope!). But it"s possible Balor will find himself paired with Jericho, or another established name (maybe even Kevin Owens) before working his way to a title.
That means you"ll have to wait a while before that dream matchup between Balor and Seth Rollins.
Darren Young vs. The Miz - Intercontinental Title Match: WWE Battleground 2016 on WWE Network
The directions of both RAW and SmackDown are more set today than they were, thanks to a largely entertaining Sunday night.
Battleground has come and gone, and the stacked card didnt disappoint. Somehow, a match with no title changes managed to advance multiple stories, generate excitement for the now separate brands of RAW and SmackDown, and help plant the first few seeds for WWEs largest remaining show of 2016: SummerSlam. Lets dive into this successful event.
Breezango defeats The Usos
Occasionally, WWE will feature tag matches on the pre-show that lack energy or purpose. This was not one of those tags, as Breezango (Tyler Breeze and Fandango) and Usos Jimmy and Jey showed off some new moves, fantastic teamwork, and drama not often seen on the kickoff show.
What we learned: Its a good sign going forward for SmackDowns tag division and not just because the newer, fresher team, Breezango, picked up the victory against the established Usos. SmackDown doesnt have the tag titles (or any tag titles) yet, but building a competitive division from the ground up will help generate interest in such a championship.
Sasha Banks and Bayley defeat Charlotte (c) and Dana Brooke
Sasha Banks had a mystery partner coming into the night, and the smile on her face let everyone who could see it know that said partner was going to be Bayley. This was maybe the moment of the entire night, as Bayley whose call-up to WWE was at first delayed by injury and then by a lengthy run as NXTs Womens Champion to help anchor the burgeoning touring brand finally made it to the main roster. The match itself was great, too, with hard-hitting attacks coming from both sides, plenty of drama to be found, and Sasha tapping out Womens Champion Charlotte to likely setup a championship match at SummerSlam.
What we learned: We are all this young lady when Bayley shows up on our televisions.
Six-Man Tag Match: The Wyatts defeat The New Day (c)
The Wyatt Family tried to warn The New Day repeatedly that they were to be taken seriously, and outside of Xavier Woods, no one was listening. It became apparent to Big E and Kofi Kingston as the match went on and Bray Wyatt and crew proved difficult to put away, though. New Day would eventually succumb in this non-title match, maybe finishing off this feud and raising questions on both sides.
What we learned: Bray Wyatt is still super dope in the ring, and might have helped create a situation where The New Day needs to evolve theyre the longest-reigning WWE tag champs, sure, but now what? With Braun Strowman on RAW while Bray and Erick Rowan are on SmackDown, its to be seen how this victory is used to enhance the Wyatts for more than just the one night.
United States Championship Match: Rusev (c) crushes Zack Ryder
Zack Ryder put up a good fight, even coming out in a super pro-American getup, but nothing we know of can stop Rusev from crushing at this point. Ryder even made a valiant effort to break out of the Accolade something only a handful of wrestlers have managed but Rusev wrenched backward and put even more force into the submission, making it so Ryder had no chance but to tap.
What we learned: WWE is taking Zack Ryders resurgence seriously, and are also using it as a way to launch the main roster career of Mojo Rawley Ryders tag team partner from NXT. Mojo came out for the save of Ryder after Rusev decided to keep attacking the defeated challenger post-match. Rusev seemed unimpressed by Mojos energy and hype, and the idea of these two big dudes throwing each other around is the kind of thing we didnt even know we wanted until it was presented to us as a possibility.
Sami Zayn defeats Kevin Owens
This was billed as the match to end the Zayn-Owens feud for good. You know thats a lie, but given how the two pulled out every stop and then some more we didnt even know they had, they might have earned a little break from destroying each other week in and week out, as Zayn seems to finally have gotten revenge for Owens taking him out and betraying him back in NXT.
What we learned: There might not be better chemistry in all of wrestling than what Sami Zayn and Kevin Owens share, and the fruits of that relationship were plain to see on Sunday. We didnt necessarily learn that for the first time, but it feels amazing every time they remind us.
Natalya defeats Becky Lynch
This match took a little bit of time to get going, but that was mostly because it followed the emotionally draining Zayn vs. Owens. Natalya picked up the victory after the two traded submissions back and forth, and now gets to taunt Becky repeatedly for her defeat. Of course, if you come at Becky on Twitter, you best not miss:
What we learned: This had a surprising outcome, but only at first: when you stop and think about the shape of the womens division on SmackDown and what else you can get out of a lengthy Natalya vs. Becky Lynch feud, Natalya picking up the first victory makes all kinds of sense. Natalya doesnt have to be a cheating heel to be a successful heel: she can just be a jerk who shows off and has legitimate talent that Becky needs to contend with and lose clean to. Becky will eventually rise to the level she needs to in order to defeat Natalya and win this feud, and the matches that get us there will power SmackDowns womens division in the meantime.
Intercontinental Championship Match: The Miz (c) retains against Darren Young via double disqualification
This match had its stumbles, but it was more of a building block for a much more significant showdown between the two in the future, anyway. The Miz is so easy to root against, and continued to be so here, while Darren Youngs current character arc of being made into something great once again is one that fans seem to be getting behind. A double DQ is a shame in the sense you wanted some closure, but well appreciate it when we see where these two go next against each other.
WWE.com
What we learned: More like what Darren Young learned, as he came to the realization that the Crossface Chicken Wing submission gives him a serious tool to pull out whenever he needs to dismantle an opponent. Youngs mentor, Bob Backlund, might be teaching him about the more dangerous parts of being like Backlund, too, and its going to be great when Young completely snaps on Miz and Miz cant do anything but tap.
Six-Man Tag Match: John Cena, Enzo and Big Cass defeat The Club
Cena lost to AJ Styles at Money in the Bank when The Club (Luke Gallows and Karl Anderson) interrupted the match, but this time, with Enzo and Big Cass there to help, Cena was able to get his win back. This wont be the last match between Cena and Styles nor should it be but it was a great way to prove Cena right while also giving Styles motivation to evolve in the future so he can continue to torment the face that runs the place.
What we learned: Enzo and Big Cass are already huge stars, with John Cena even giving them deferential treatment and appearing honored by their praise for him. This team defeating The Club makes sense given the split directions of the groups AJ Styles and Cena are on SmackDown, where neither team can call on their boys to help given that the two tag teams are on RAW post-draft. Two feuds turn into one and elegantly back into two again.
WWE Championship Triple-Threat Match: Dean Ambrose defeats Roman Reigns and Seth Rollins
The expectation from many was that Ambrose was a temporary, short-term champion who was just holding the belt while Roman Reigns came back from his suspension. Seth Rollins didnt get the title back from Ambrose, though, meaning Reigns cant try to get it back from Seth, and SmackDown is now the show with WWEs most prestigious belt. The Shield triple-threat weve all been waiting for didnt happen at one of WWEs largest shows, but it was important for the performers and the direction of the company all the same.
Roman Reigns took the pin maybe a sign that his push is going to slow down enough for fans to stop resenting him so hard and Dean Ambrose and Seth Rollins worked together in a way that harms my Shield-loving heart. Even if it was to take Reigns out of the equation.
What we learned: Ambrose and the WWE Championship remaining on SmackDown is huge for both the wrestler and the brand, as SmackDown is trying to stop being considered the B-show as it goes live and splits off from RAW. Now, Stephanie McMahon and Mick Foley the authority figures on RAW are going to have to figure out how to introduce their own primary championship on the show. Whether they just give it to Rollins because hes their top draft pick and it will make people furious, or they setup a tournament that finds RAWs champion at SummerSlam next month barely matters: either way is going to help draw attention to the show.
WWE"s (NYSE:WWE) falling television ratings suggest the company"s popularity is also declining, but Google Trends, house show attendance and merchandise revenue show otherwise.
There was a strong relationship between Google interest in WWE and WWE Raw TV ratings up until about 2013, when Google interest started to bow in the opposite direction of declining ratings.
When we take WWE Raw"s Live+SD TV ratings and average them by month, then standardize them like Google Trends metrics (by standardizing the highest instance as 100), then we see an interesting picture.
We see the correlation between the two data sets from 2008 to present is 0.2689, indicating a weak relationship between Raw"s TV ratings and Google interest in WWE across that time. (By the way, the correlation result for this and the other examples discussed later are exactly the same if we take the original non-standardized TV ratings dataset; standardizing the TV ratings data set to a standard of 100 changes nothing.)
If we look at just January 2008 through December 2013, though, the relationship is strong. For those years, Google interest and Raw TV ratings correlated well.
But if you look at the relationship after that point, you can see that the two data sets went in opposite directions.
What happened? The first thing you can point to is the launch of the WWE Network on February 24, 2014. But if you look at the graph at the top of this page again, you can see the correlation peaked and began disintegrating about in the middle of 2012, well before the launch of the WWE Network. Subscribing to the WWE Network, while it does give you access to thousands of hours of WWE content, it doesn"t give viewers access to episodes of Raw (or Smackdown) until 30 days after they originally air.
It"s plausible that the slight increase we see in WWE on Google is due to the product"s increasing presence throughout the internet and social media. It"s also plausible that a genuine decrease in popularity is masked by an increase in such activity. As I"ll discuss later, though, other metrics don"t corroborate a decline in popularity over recent years.
The graph for WWE"s Google Trends itself looks like this:
Click to enlarge
Source: Google Trends
That"s worldwide interest. If you look at interest just in the U.S., it"s very similar.
But what is the Google Trend metric? "Measuring search interest in topics is a beta feature which quickly provides accurate measurements of overall search interest," according to Google. When you measure interest in a search topic (such as WWE), Google"s algorithms "count many different search queries that may relate to the same topic". So when you select "WWE - professional wrestling company", Google is not just counting the search string "WWE" but lots of other strings that are related. It"s also important to understand the value Google Trends reveals isn"t an absolute unit; it"s a relative value, with the highest instance of interest standardized as 100, and all other instances compared to that standard.
Are Google Trends a reliable indicator of WWE"s popularity? Let"s look at Google Trends data for two similar businesses: Total Nonstop Action and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
Click to enlargeSource: Google Trends
TNA is another pro wrestling company. Its decline in popularity and financial health is consistent with the Google Trends graph above.
TNA has been on cable TV with national exposure since 2005. Most of the time since 2005, it has been the number-two pro wrestling company in the country, albeit a very distant number-two to WWE. TNA was broadcast on Spike from 2005 to 2014. The peak in Google interest shown on the graph above coincides with January 4, 2010, when TNA loaded up their program in a move to Monday night to go head-to-head with Raw, scoring their highest TV rating ever, in a short-lived attempt to recreate the Monday Night Wars. After losing their deal with Spike, TNA moved to the lower profile Destination America for all of 2015 until that relationship was ended as well and it ended up on PopTV beginning 2016: a deal that provides them with no rights fees, only ad revenue. While ratings declined, the company"s financial welfare has reportedly declined as well. There are regular reports of talent and production crew members not being paid on time. Just recently, their live pay-per-view broadcast and television tapings had to be saved from cancellation by last-minute financial backing.
Click to enlarge
Source: Google Trends
UFC is the most popular mixed martial arts promotion in the world. UFC 196 in March of this year scored 1.5 million pay-per-view buys, nearly the highest in the company"s history. UFC President Dana White said it was the most successful event the organization ever promoted. That event coincides with the spike seen on the graph above for that time period. If the show only did 1.5 million buys, though, it"s interesting that UFC 100, which drew 1.6 million in July 2010, only drew 62% as much interest on Google.
What about other WWE metrics?
A decline in live event attendance in addition to TV ratings would be a more worrying sign for WWE"s popularity. But attendance over the last several years has been stable.
WWE reported in their Key Performance Indicators a 6,100 average for North American attendance for 2016 Q1, which is right on par with the norm.
2016 Q2 results will probably be released in early August. House show attendance sourced from the Wrestling Observer Newsletter for Q2 through June 11, shows attendance for those non-televised events is at a low point, with an average of 3,779 attendees per show.
John Cena is WWE"s lone proven difference-maker, among those who regularly work house shows. He"s been off of all house shows so far this year due to injury. He"s scheduled to return to regular touring beginning June 29. Investors should watch to see if WWE indeed reports a low North American live attendance average for Q2, which I would expect. And if WWE does so, investors should watch for whether there"s a recovery in Q3 and Q4 with Cena back on tour. If live attendance does not recover, that would point to a genuine decline in popularity, and other key areas of their business might suffer.
However, as the chart above shows, the decline in TV ratings over the long-term does not yet coincide with any long-term decline in either house show attendance or live attendance overall, which has fluctuated but remained stable. Nor does the decline in Raw"s ratings coincide with a decline in attendance for Raw tapings themselves, which have gone up slightly in the last few years -- again, as sourced from the Observer:
2014 WWE Raw attendance average: 9,5712015 WWE Raw attendance average: 9,6772016 WWE Raw attendance average (through June 13): 10,304
Merchandise revenue, if anything, has increased thanks to more online sales (all filed by the company under "WWEShop", whether they occur on WWEShop.com, Amazon or elsewhere).
In light of the fact that Google searches are up, house show attendance is flat, Raw attendance is slightly up, and merchandise revenue is up, I don"t believe WWE is declining in popularity. TV ratings are the only key metric in a genuine decline; reasons for that will be discussed further below.
In all this evidence, though, there is room for an argument that WWE has become more of a niche product over the last several years. It"s possible Google searches are up because the same number of people or fewer people are just searching WWE-related topics more often. It"s possible that merchandise revenue is up, not because more unique customers are buying, but because customers are buying more units and/or more expensive items. House show attendance being flat, but attendance to the more prestigious Raw events being slightly up is consistent with a fan base that is becoming more ardent. Developments like the WWE Network and the success of the NXT brand, which both appeal strongly to the most ardent fans, are clues as well. Investors should watch whether this pattern grows more over time.
All that said, WWE is in a quandary in regards to its lucrative TV rights fees and declining ratings. Television rights fees are the company"s largest revenue source. Because of that, TV ratings are still important.
To say, though, that WWE"s declining ratings are just an example of declines throughout television is skirting the issue. There are a number of critical subtleties:
Live sports ratings for the NFL, NBA and MLB, as well as mixed martial arts promotions, UFC and Bellator, are all stable if not strong in recent years. True, ratings for scripted programming are largely down. I think WWE is a hybrid of both live sports and scripted programming, so if all other things are equal, the "all ratings are down" effect should be afflicting them less so than other scripted entertainment and more so than other live sports.
Some think cord-cutting is affecting WWE"s ratings. But the ratings shouldn"t be affected by cord-cutting, because the ratings metric takes into account the percentage of households the channel is available in that view the program, so that homes that no longer have access to cable channels like the USA Network (the home of Raw and Smackdown) aren"t part of the equation.
Click to enlargeSource: Chris Harrington
Raw"s move from a two- to three-hour format in 2012 is indeed taking a toll. The anecdotal as well as the quantitative evidence suggests viewers are exhausted by the longer program. The third hour of Raw is the least viewed of the three almost every week.
Some say WWE"s strong push of digital and social media (e.g., the WWE Network, clips on YouTube and Facebook of everything that happens on Raw and Smackdown, next day VOD of Raw and Smackdown on Hulu, etc.) is cannibalizing the older media: television. I considered this a few weeks ago. Cannibalization of that kind must be happening to some degree, but it"s hard to say to what extent.
Last, but most importantly, WWE hasn"t created a difference-making star in over ten years: John Cena being the last one. Roman Reigns is the company"s new hope, but he"s been rejected by at least a portion of the fans, and has yet to show he makes a positive difference to any of the company"s known business metrics. The emergence of a new difference-making star to the level of past stars like Hulk Hogan, Steve Austin or The Rock, would blow all of these other caveats away; star power would override the winds of changing media and ratings would rise. The company"s inability to create stars in the last ten years has been its greatest shortcoming; until it remedies that problem WWE will always fall short of its true potential.
The Google Trends graphs in this article show ratings completely stopped correlating to Google searches certainly by early 2015. From there, ratings continued to decline, but Google interest didn"t. In fact, Google interest has gone up while ratings have gone down. The conclusion to draw from this is that ratings are no longer a reliable indicator of product interest. Of course, if genuine interest in WWE dramatically increased, we would see a renewed correlation between Google Trends and ratings.
"Ratings don"t matter" is the wrong conclusion to draw. From week-to-week, big changes in ratings still mean something in regards to interest within a small window, but over longer periods of time, they don"t. It would also be wrong to say that because ratings are down 10% from last year, there"s now 10% less interest in the WWE product. But most crucial, ratings do matter to TV partners who rely on WWE to sell ads and improve their rankings among other networks.
What will the future hold for the company"s TV rights fees -- 35% of all revenue in 2015 -- if ratings continue to slide? The next deal with major partners like NBCUniversal will likely happen around 2018: providing a few more years for ratings to sink further, or for WWE to cultivate a true star.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Stephanie McMahon hits the canvas: WWE Canvas 2 Canvas
Heres our final review of WWE Money in the Bank 2016!
The Golden Truth (Goldust and R-Truth) vs. Breezango (Tyler Breeze and Fandango)
Reactions: This was more of a fun skirmish than an actual hotly contested match. The whole joke this match focused on were The Golden Truth taking advantage of the painful tan their opponents had. It was funny the first few times Fandango and Breeze got chopped, but that joke grew old after a million and one chops transpired as the match wore on. We like both teams and their promos are actually quite humorous. This match really doesnt need to be seen a 2nd time, though. Avoid it all costs.
Rating: 1 out of 5 Stars
The Lucha Dragons (Kalisto and Sin Cara) vs. The Dudley Boyz (Bubba Ray Dudley and D-Von Dudley
Reactions: This was justthere. A tag matchup such as this one felt more like a regular tag bout used to kill time on an episode of RAW/SmackDown. Bubbas constant verbal taunting is always fun though, so at least he kept our attention with that. The Dragons pulled out their usual dazzling maneuvers and The Dudleyz got rough and played dirty at all costs. It was pretty much what we expected it to be: passable. Good to see the Dragons get a worthy win, though.
Rating: 2 out of 5 Stars
The New Day (Big E, Kofi Kingston and/or Xavier Woods) (c) vs. Karl Anderson and Luke Gallows vs. Enzo Amore and Big Cass vs. The Vaudevillains (Aiden English and Simon Gotch) (WWE Tag Team Championship)
Reactions: This was the perfect way to start things officially for 2016s Money in the Bank spectacular. Plenty of hilarity ensued when Enzo & Big Cass and The New Day traded some verbal jabs with each other. Once the match finally began, it was a thoroughly entertaining affair. The action started at a fast pace and stayed that way up until the very end. Every team got in some great offense at every chance thy could. Big E speared Simon through the middle rope, Xavier Woods ate a vicious big boot from Luke, The Vaudevillains almost ended Kofi with their finisher and Big Cass went on a rampage when he got the hottest of hot tags. The finishing sequence was a joy to witness as Cass booted Luke into another universe while The New Day finished off Karl. This was a strong opening match effort.
